Tuesday, August 27, 2013

And the Rupee touches a new low - Again !

   As the rupee hit 66.06 the Sensex plunged 600 points to end at 590 by the end of the day, this my dear fellow countrymen is called carnage, this is total carnage, every other day whatever small gains the Sensex makes is swallowed by the huge plunges it takes, whatever the government and RBI together have been doing for the past two months or so to instill a certain sense into everything that affects the macroeconomic conditions has had no effect at all, why?, because this government is hell bent on pushing things to the extreme just to carve out a minute chance to secure a third term at a huge cost. What was the need to introduce Food security bill at this point of time when there is too much of negative sentiment and little faith in the fundamentals of our economy, and even after being aware that this is going to add an additional pressure of 40,000 crores on our already stretched up finance's the government chose to pin its hopes on its gut feeling rather than on reams of economic and statistical data which are crying out loud for prudent economic measures, it is this very exact fiscal imprudence resulting out of political compulsions free markets hate to entertain, the rupee has lost around 20 % of its value since the beginning of this year, the last time the rupee saw such a plunge in its value in a year was in 1991 and 1998 during the Asian economic crisis.
                               Its good to take risks to create wealth, to create assets but not to spend that's exactly this government has done, it has pinned it's hopes on generating more revenue in the future by parting with the stakes it has in the PSU's, but for that to happen the market condition's have to be favorable for the valuations of these PSU's to be inviting enough so as to be able to broker equity purchases of these PSU's in the primary and secondary markets, and that can happen only when India clocks the exact GDP figure the government has projected for this fiscal year and other indictor's of economic health are in green. The government has pinned its hopes on the future revenue it should be able to generate to be able to spend now if this is not fiscal imprudence nothing is, and adding to that the price of the crude oil the single commodity which has been pushing our CAD figures to dismal is lurking at risky levels in terms of the effect it could have on our already spiraling import bills, The Brent crude oil price is hovering at around 110 $ and with the political conditions in Syria getting worse and the US wanting to put its foot forward to instill some or more (in)sanity into that region things are heading towards worse, I just hope that in months from now I don't end up being that person who get's to say "see dint I say this was coming !"

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