Tuesday, August 27, 2013

And the Rupee touches a new low - Again !

   As the rupee hit 66.06 the Sensex plunged 600 points to end at 590 by the end of the day, this my dear fellow countrymen is called carnage, this is total carnage, every other day whatever small gains the Sensex makes is swallowed by the huge plunges it takes, whatever the government and RBI together have been doing for the past two months or so to instill a certain sense into everything that affects the macroeconomic conditions has had no effect at all, why?, because this government is hell bent on pushing things to the extreme just to carve out a minute chance to secure a third term at a huge cost. What was the need to introduce Food security bill at this point of time when there is too much of negative sentiment and little faith in the fundamentals of our economy, and even after being aware that this is going to add an additional pressure of 40,000 crores on our already stretched up finance's the government chose to pin its hopes on its gut feeling rather than on reams of economic and statistical data which are crying out loud for prudent economic measures, it is this very exact fiscal imprudence resulting out of political compulsions free markets hate to entertain, the rupee has lost around 20 % of its value since the beginning of this year, the last time the rupee saw such a plunge in its value in a year was in 1991 and 1998 during the Asian economic crisis.
                               Its good to take risks to create wealth, to create assets but not to spend that's exactly this government has done, it has pinned it's hopes on generating more revenue in the future by parting with the stakes it has in the PSU's, but for that to happen the market condition's have to be favorable for the valuations of these PSU's to be inviting enough so as to be able to broker equity purchases of these PSU's in the primary and secondary markets, and that can happen only when India clocks the exact GDP figure the government has projected for this fiscal year and other indictor's of economic health are in green. The government has pinned its hopes on the future revenue it should be able to generate to be able to spend now if this is not fiscal imprudence nothing is, and adding to that the price of the crude oil the single commodity which has been pushing our CAD figures to dismal is lurking at risky levels in terms of the effect it could have on our already spiraling import bills, The Brent crude oil price is hovering at around 110 $ and with the political conditions in Syria getting worse and the US wanting to put its foot forward to instill some or more (in)sanity into that region things are heading towards worse, I just hope that in months from now I don't end up being that person who get's to say "see dint I say this was coming !"

Sunday, August 18, 2013

A slip of 769.41 Sensex points is no coincidence

             Mr.Chidambaram even when you masquerader ad hoc measures as sufficient policy changes required to deliver the needed results market's know what really is happening, a slip of 769.41 Sensex points might be a little over exaggerated but it dint happen without a reason so is the rupee touching new low every other day, market is not your voting pool which can be wooed with a few promises, when the business sentiment seems like is not going to be good anytime soon how do you expect markets to trust in the future that you talk about, add to that you have blatantly denied the basic right the decree of free market economics promises to each businesses "an economy that would be governed by the laws of markets free will", How could you even think about curbing the interests of businesses to make investments abroad. The big bang FDI reform that your government so raved about has not had many takers, and a few who are willing don't see it as enough and are bargaining for more knowing well that we are messed up big time.
              Things have been falling apart for a very long time, the balance of payment issue has been getting bigger each quarter since mid 2011 and here you are bending backwards to undo things in a jiffy, things which have been in the making for a pretty long time cannot be undone overnight Mr. Finance Minister you should know better.  Mr. Finance Minister people with their hard earned money are going to buy gold no matter what, even when you ask them to not to do so, even when you increase the excise duty on gold imports markets will find ways to bring in gold to make sense to people who don't believe in the magic tricks promised by finance ministers even though they happen to be renowned economists. You should make people invest their savings into government issued debt bonds by making it more attractive, offer tax deduction on the capital gains on newly developed real estate properties using gold assets, offer tax deductions on properties purchased using gold, and here you are Issuing quasi-sovereign bonds what has come over you ?, Capitalizing on the abilities of the state run corporations with deep pockets to pile up under recoveries to pull in a few dollars into the market!, you could do better Mr. Finance Minister. The investment climate with in the country has been fledging for sometime now, capital expenditure has come down drastically in the last few quarters and the PMI figures have been dismal as well and here you are trying your best to garner trust from the outside, have you worked out the cost this debt will incur while it needs to be serviced when it is due, what if the economy hasn't turned around by then. Subsequent governments have made this country dependent on our services sector to show good GDP figures. India's 56 percent of its GDP share comes from its services sector of which nearly 17 percent alone is the cost incurred due  to the services provided by the government, and this is a strange and amazing feet in itself, this is something that should be the case with the post industrialized economy and here we are emulating a post industrialized economy even while we have nearly 23 percent of the population below the poverty line and as many people who are unemployable because of poor skill's.
                                   Why don't you stick to the basics Mr. Finance minister address the real issues, you should take measures to replace products that are being imported with the local substitutes, Mr. Finance Minister I would like to ask you a straight forward question why on earth are we importing coal while we have so much of untapped coal reserves, why hasn't your government been able to take enough steps to open up those reserves by taking the sentiments of the people who reside near those coal reserves into consideration and compensating them fairly, why is the entire process around allocating coal mines is so murky, address those issues Mr.Chidambaram. Why are we heavily dependent on other countries for our electronic goods needs?, we are over a billion plus country and its a shame that we have allowed other countries to cater to our durable goods needs. We need efficient data gathering mechanism to gauge the output of our perishable food items like vegetables and non perishable food items on weekly basis which takes into all kinds of probabilities into account and arrives at future projections of our food produce to minimize undue speculation which from time to time has been skewing the market prices resulting in inflation, government has to come up with proper mechanism to channel the skilled work force without work to find jobs in foreign land aiming to increase our remittances. Better take measures to kick start our sagging manufacturing sector, recently I happened to see the ground reality of one of your flagship program's MGNREGA guaranteeing rural employment to people in the villages for at least 100 days in a year, I was shown a work an outcome of NREGA  I was told, I was informed that the people in that village had made that lake but the thing is it dint have any water in it, it was a shabbily made big hole which wouldn't hold water even if it rained more than in cherrapunji, with such blatant disregard for Tax payers money and such gross mismanagement some people in your party are betting on Food security bill and are still carrying hopes of a thumping mandate for a third term, its never going to happen Mr. Finance Minister , if there is anything one can be certain of it is this Mr. Chidambaram your party is going to lose this election so badly that it wouldn't have the face to call it's laurels of the past to its rescue.

Friday, August 16, 2013

Only the way it alone knows how to know

A severed milieu
that I am not used to in lieu of
what I used to presume
about things
the way I only could presume
is exacting, intriguing
and yet
so inconsequential
why?
why would it have to be that anything and everything
should have a certain connotation and texture
as insinuated by the minds
of gone forever in due measure 
why?
a thing that can leap time and space
and pass through the vortex
where even the light would falter
is binded by the extremities of definitions
as illustrated by the minds of gone forever 
arguing that its for its own sake
in fact just incase
which sounds so stupid and meaningless
even then they say
just in case
why?
how verve the color's may be
they fade through eventually
even the add on textures
do lose their verdure
and yet the ways of minds of gone forever
have sustained and they still endure
why?
sensing a meaningless
parody in all this
I remembered the fortitude
of the words that I had read long time ago
which had it in them
the ardor my heart alone could know
only the way it alone knows how to know ...