The play is called "FDI"

                 As a person who has as a certain grasp on the macro economic conditions like any other economist who is worth his salt i will find the recent steps taken by the government as necessary ones if only i believe this to be a challenge thrown upon us by the heavens out of no where. In the west Mamata Banerjee has gone nuts and in the down south Mr. Karunanidhi is whining which people seem to have come to an understanding that is for no reason, putting aside the political stunts that have been carried out in the recent times in the name of defending "aam admis rights", who really is to be blamed for this dead end ?, what and who led to a situation like this one, in which our under performing Prime minister turned into an actor of par excellence over night who with a straight face made a mentioning of our countries 1991 economic situation and the actions taken by the government then to infuse credibility into the reasons behind the recent steps taken by the government to bring down the fiscal deficit. 
                      
                The government started out with blaming the spiraling fuel costs saying that it was eating up our reserves which on the other occasions had whole heartedly given away precious resources like spectrum and coal reserves for a pittance with no worries about spiraling government spending, the opposition on the other hand blamed it on the poor governance, raised tantrums about the scams and made the parliament dysfunctional and in the end everybody got into the game of finding out who the guilty one was and both the government and the opposition agreed to come to a conclusion that it was Mr. Kejriwal and his team who were fasting for a strong Lok Pal Bill and for action against the 15 tainted ministers. The government really dint know where to look because all around it was mirrors and the opposition safely played the card of being dumb enough to not know how to look into a mirror. And now both the government and the opposition in a way have paved the way to bring in stashed away trillions of illicit rupees through a legitimate means which would make all black into white leaving the ordinary mortals wondering if the color of truth had always been grey ? 

                             The government announced certain policy changes and called it reforms, reforms that actually makes people to shell out more from their pockets rather than putting more into their pockets, the newspapers claimed that these were bold steps, market pundits opined that this could lead to a turn around in the economic situation, and our countries chief economic Adviser Raghuram Rajan pressed that FDI is the safest way of financing our infrastructural needs which would also help us in minimizing the spiraling of our fiscal deficit, Now the media talk is all about the strengthening rupee and the stock markets splendid performance and all these are somehow being attributed to the new found Investors confidence in the Indian economy due to the governments efforts to make things happen, Well all said and done what do we have in our hands now, its been a while since the FDI gates have been made a lot wider but how many are there at the door steps, if only reality did carry some value it would have been made known to everybody that the markets around the world have performed reasonably well in the month of September mainly due to efforts taken by European central bank to mop up more government bonds and Federal reserves measures to ease the debt by raising taxes and more so because of the governments of Greece and Spain have tightened their purses by introducing more stringent policies which would keep a check on their future public spending by denying millions their right to a comfortable retired life.  

                                  As for our government it had its reasons in efficiency and increased life span of perishable goods to raise the FDI limits in the retail sector, which it swears would ultimately benefit the farmers and consumers, but do we need a Kmart or a carrefour or a Walmart to provide us a solution to a problem which is so within the limits of our own 1.85 trillion $ GDP nation. Isn't it the governments job to provide storage facilities and provide a perfect logistic solution, as well as better prices for its farmers produce which in the long run would pay off itself through better tax returns, isn't the government shying away from its responsibilities by outsourcing its job of governance to companies which are driven by profits, why are we even paying taxes to the government then. If finance, technological and distribution know how's are the only criteria based on which the government has gone ahead and increased the FDI limit in the retail industry then i guess our government happily chose to ignore our very own cash rich companies like Reliance and PSU's, Reliance alone is sitting on a huge cash pile of 70,000 crore rupees, our government could have come out with policies to tap the huge cash reserves of our corporate giants without looking outside to finance its infrastructural needs. And this government for a very long time has been playing a trick of comparing itself with Bangladesh and Pakistan when ever it ponders about increasing the fuel prices and tries to convince the Indian public that the fuel prices in this county are reasonable enough, but all the while in china which has a population more or less equal to our nation and consumes more fuel than any other country on this planet even with more than half of its fuel being imported from abroad a liter of petrol is still less than 64 rupees and here in India it is 72 rupees. A country which imports 80% of its fuel for consumption should have been more coercive in securing energy blocks around the world and should have had a more proactive energy policy (I have mentioned about this elsewhere in my blog).

                                     On the contrary one cannot say no in an outright way to the likes of carrefour entering our markets either, because Walmart or Kmart are just the results of the gluttonous consumer in each one of us who has got so used to having 20 or more different choices at his or her disposal, whether it be for a car he or she wants to buy or a pair of slippers that he or she doesn't need. Walmart is just a by-product and one cannot say no to a by-product because it is an inevitable reality of any process, and Walmart is the by-product of the reality that the whole world seems to have started to believe in "economic growth is all about more consumption and higher GDP", we cannot say no to Walmart while we try to take advantage of the foreign exchange rate by making our skilled workers become modern day white collared and blue collared "dollar coolies" who send billions of dollars in remittances each year to their families here in India. or can we say no to Kmart while we drain our reserves by consuming tons and tons of gold from the international market each year, things become very complicated when one starts to analyze the issues leaving the naivete behind, At the most what we can do now is be aware of the malice called "consumerism" and at the same time expect and force our Indian retail chains to be more efficient enough to challenge the likes of Walmart and carrefour, which might lead to the failure of Walmart and its likes in the indian market, just like how Japanese people made sure that none of the american car manufactures made it big in their country. I am one of those Platonists who still believes that i am surrounded by reasonable people and Tetra Packed tender coconut water sold by Walmart will make it big in fool's only country.

                                                










































Prasanna Kumar 

Poem

For the man who had to go miles before he could sleep........

In the dark and in the gloom
with clouds up above in the heavens,

marring the light

the full moon has to shine ,

i hear the wind drifting 

through the woods,

its a secret, yea a secret
is what i overhear,

which i am sure,

the wind wanted the gentle

leaves alone to hear,

its going to get colder

said the wind

for the winter is

around the corner,

for the winter is

around the corner,

"so,the winter is here" 

so i said, like a Lear,

I am a traveler,

with packed traps and springing strides

i travel,

like the seasons 

i travel,

winter or summer 

i don't bother 

but marvel, 

summer its hot

so what i care not,

I am a Traveler

i fear not the cold,

i fear not the winter

for i have no place to go

for i have no place to go,

the winter is around

the corner, though.

But its when

I heard the leaves rustle,

the winter is here,

the winter is here,

I wished the sweet pleasantness 

of the yesterdays

would stay with me all along,

night and day through the winter

till the spring came along,

but I am a traveler

so i travel

with packed traps and springing strides

and it better be where

i can spend the night,

it better be where

i can spend the night...

My Guitar Pics

Thats My guitar, Do you like these Picture, I love it...

GDP gets low, fuel prices go high !!!

 The fourth quarter GDP figure has taken a hit, at 5.3 % it is the lowest in 7 years including the period (2008-2010) in which the world economy seemed to have slumped into a lull which raised the concerns of the likelihood of it turning into an economic depression like the one in 1929 which brought down the business activity and financial services around the world to its knees, major central banks around the world went on a rate cut spree and the major world economies got themselves into the quantitative easing measure mode to arrest the slump, still the business activity around the world seemed far less from enthusiastic, corporations were shedding excesses to stay viable leaving no doubts that there has been a steady downside pressure on the consumption since 2007, credits were not forth coming, banks ceased to transact, the call money market was going berserk each day, but even then the Indian economy performed well not very much owing to the huge public spending the state got itself involved in, back then the Indian economy showed actual resilience owing to some very impressive performance of different sectors which kept the mood and the business activity upbeat even when the crude oil prices in the international oil market were reaching for the sky, though for some time the state took some of the hit in the form of not subjecting to the pressures to raise the oil prices in accordance to the international oil market prices, it dint last long until the government in June 2010 decided to decontrol the fuel prices and paired it to the fluctuations that crude oil prices go through in the international oil market.

                                     The GDP figures for the the first 3 quarters of 2010 was a whopping 9.2 % even after the government decided to decontrol the fuel prices, but since the second quarter of 2011 there has been a steady decline in the quarter GDP figures leading to the present level of 5.3%, the average price of a liter of petrol before the government decided to decontrol was Rs 47.93 but now it costs Rs 77.23 and the Gross Domestic output is on the verge of reaching the levels of all time low. Why don't the fuel prices reflect the actual fall in the consumption and the actual fall in the commercial business activity in the economy?, and why is the fuel prices reaching for the skies even when the price of the crude oil has eased a bit from the levels its was in 2009 ?. The Oil marketing companies have posted a nominal profit for the fiscal 2011-12, for the period 2012 January - march quarter alone, Indian Oil Corporation reported a profit of Rs 12,670 crore and Bharat Petroleum corporation limited a profit of Rs 3,962 crore, though the oil marketing companies are underplaying it by calling these profits as long over due with their receivables touching nearly Rs 1,50,000 crore it only makes wonder about the functioning of a free market economy in which the state is also a major player.

                                        Oil being an essential resource the oil marketing companies could very well ignore the pressures of the market to make "huge" profits to offset some hypothetical future turbulence that a hypothetical free market economy always throws up, the indian oil Corp and other state owned oil marketing companies have to define the essentiality behind their need to make "huge" profits, and Oil being a commodity so precious and so essential a resource should not be allowed to aide the indulgence a free market economy always provides for when it comes to making boundless profits, which might be beneficial for quite a few investors but one has to take a holistic approach and look at the bigger picture when a commodity so essential as oil is invovled in the functioning of the economy. Having said that these state run oil marketing companies should have turned into energy solutions centers long time ago providing answers to our countries ever increasing energy demands and needs by investing themselves and their resources in search of cheap and alternate sources of renewable energy. As of now our countries energy policy is so screwed up that the oil price factor seems likely to loose its sensitive nature on the kind of influence it wields on the broader political economy and whom do we have to blame for all this ?, I would blame it on all the rotten minds who have run and are now behind the scene people in the oil Ministry.

Rupee goes Low Fuel Prices go high !!!!

                                Yesterday my friend said something like this about the falling rupee " 56 Rupees a Dollar its bad already, what difference could it now make if its 60 Rupees a Dollar or 56 Rupees a Dollar, screw the finance minister", I guess he might be right but the numbers they trigger sentiments, a Dollar costing 56 Rupees is still better than a Dollar costing 60 rupees or for that matter a Dollar costing 62 Rupees could well be better than 60 Rupees a Dollar, "business sometimes could well be all about sentiments but not entirely", i will explain that latter. This fuel price hike was not triggered by a sudden rise in the crude oil prices but by the weakening of rupee and to make mends to our current account deficit, and why the rupee has been weakening ?, The answer to this question is confusing and interesting at the same time. Some finger's point towards the falling GDP, well some point towards the currency futures market and some to the European debt crisis, and some point it to the falling institutional investments.

                                      If you take the last one and half year or so there have been considerable fall in the index of industrial production (IIP), which shows how the manufacturing sector has been performing which is the key to the capitalistic economic setup, IIP figures also give a rough picture of whether the consumer market is upbeat or not, and lately the IIP figures have not been so good, this definitely seems to be the effect of the high lending rates of the previous months which was meant to offset the effects of very high inflation which led to an unprecedented increase in the food prices and essential goods, Inflation has been contained to a certain limit, Food prices have come down but what do we have now "a weak rupee" and why?, the Dollar is strengthening ! for the euro is in the doll drums, that's a lame story i am not ready to buy yet, the currency of a country which has been grappling to manage its debt equation for nearly a decade gaining strength, the currency of a country which is still in the pool and has no clue what so ever about how to get its spending checked, gaining strength, the currency of a country which has one of the lowest savings rate gaining strength in the real sense, is something just so hard to buy, but well that's the story some are trying to sell.

                                        I have quoted above that business is all about sentiments, but well not exactly, in fact business is all about speculations one commits to on the profits that is to be made, and speculations are for the most part driven by sentiments and hence the idea that "business is all about sentiments" that apart, the present sentiments towards the macro economic conditions or towards the profits that is to be made is not quite jubilant. what started off as something which had its reasons within the boundaries of micro economic condition's has gone out of the boundary to have its reasons from macro economic conditions and that's where i believe the reasons for the weakening of rupee lies, it could well be one of governments move to make our manufacturing competitive what with all the dismal IIP figures, on the lighter side i fancy that this might be one of RBI's move to bring back at least some of the ill gotten money which went out of the country, because of all these hoopla about Government doing nothing about the issue of Black money stashed abroad, well its an undenaiable fact that there will always be people who are always greedy and would always prefer to have more rupees and this could be the right time for them. A surge in the number of NRI Bank accounts in the country that would be so so on the expected lines.

Colors of life all around
bustling in the vividness
of its possibilities,
though fades through
to meet its end,
it seems so endless and abound
in the realms of our sensibilities,
I wonder if thats what celestials
intended it to be,
for it to be limited,
to be incomplete,
but it doesn't matter
I intend to complete
which the heavens have left incomplete,
the hues of life
needs to become eternal
and will,
through the lens i see.

- A Photographer, Me :)

A Short Story

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Lately I have been reading more of Haruki Murakamis works and its been amazing for many reasons, I think there are many aspects to the way one sees the world, most of the time we are not even aware of those aspects which makes us to see the world the way we see it and Murakami just makes you aware of those aspects.

A RED KITE, BLUE PAIR OF SHOES, VIOLIN MUSIC

It doesn't matter; it just doesn't matter because I don’t exist anymore. I don't exist even when I have a story that I have to say to you the reader, I just don't exist, I just have fleeting memories of the images of my existence, a red kite, a pair of blue shoes, violin music. It sounds strange isn't it for you the reader to hear about something from some one who doesn't exist, it sounds strange even to myself but strange as it may sound it is real, and it is real as strange. Some times when strange happens people try their best to make it look normal when they cant they ignore it. Well here in this case you the reader don't have any other choice but to listen to me, I will try to make it look as normal as I can so you don’t feel strange and uncomfortable, so before I continue let me make myself clear once again to you the reader, I don’t exist.

A tiny little hand is holding on to the string of a red kite flying high up in the air against the clear blue sky, its sunny but nice thought the "little one", the red kite has a very long tail and it sways, it sways as if it is really happy to be up in the clear blue sky. The tiny little asks, daddy why does the kites tail sway, its because of the wind honey, said the daddy. But the tiny little knew daddy was wrong because the kite never swayed his tail when he hanged on the wall in her tiny little room, and the tiny little remembers daddy once saying that "wind is all around us honey, its everywhere". The tiny little knew daddy was just wrong, the red kite was just happy to be up in the clear blue sky and that’s why he swayed his tail. It was nice to see the red kite happy up in the clear blue sky swaying his tail.

A small pair of black leather shoes stomp on the green grass heading towards they dint know where. The small black leather shoes were getting wet and darker as they waded through the twinkling dewy blades of green grass, after some stomping and hoping they were in front of a Small pair of blue shoes. The pair of blue shoes looked sad, the pair of black leather shoes dint know why the blue shoes were sad, the black leather shoes thought the blue shoes were sad may be because they were wornout or they were getting wet or may be because they were in front of the new black leather shoes or just because their color was blue, they just dint know why the blue shoes were sad, then the black leather shoes and the blue shoes started to walk together heading towards they dint know where. They stopped in front of a small puddle, the blue shoes jumped right into the browny water, the browny water splashed on the black shoes making them look half brown, the blue shoes hopped back again to the green grass and back again into the puddle, the black shoes could see the pair of blue shoes dint look sad anymore they were happy to get wet, they were happy to get dirty, they were happy to turn into another color, the blue pair of shoes weren't blue anymore. The black shoes hesitated a bit but they also jumped into the puddle and let their color change, and the black leather shoes and the blue shoes they were happy together in the puddle. The blue shoes weren’t blue anymore, the black shoes weren’t black anymore but they were happy.

It was raining outside the car, sitting in the back of the car the little one was looking outside through the window listening to the violin music daddy had put on the player, the rain drops came down heavily against the window and it sounded like violin music, the rain drops seemed happy to sound like violin music thought the little one, the car window also seemed too happy thought the little one may because it also liked the rain sounding like violin music, as the violin music was melting the rain drops into what the car window seemed to be enjoying the little one's eyes were glued upon it, just then the little one heard the thunder and the sound of tyres screeching, the sound of the rain sounded like rain again, the little one heard the not happy sound of the shattering glasses and the not happy loud noise of metal's clanking and screeching as the car rolled over, the little one dint know what had just happened as she was up side down looking at her daddys face covered in blood, the little one heard the rain sounding like rain again, the rain sounded like it was happy to sound like rain again thought the little one, and then the rain stopped sounding like rain as it became dark all over again ...

get up honey, its 7:30 in the morning. You will be late to school. There was no sound, just the hush... no sound, it was all dark the rain sound had stopped.

Honey get up you are 6 years old now, you cannot have mommy waking you up every morning, dint mommy tell you to use the alarm clock last night. The sound of rain had stopped, the sound of rain had stopped, hush. I don’t exist.

Open your eyes honey. Today you have to brush your teeth yourself; mommy is not going to help you.

Mommy can i sleep a little bit more,

no honey, not if you want to have your favorite chocolate pie mommy has made for your break fast.

Chocolate pie!! That sounds nice mommy! i will be there in a minute.

Honey, you have to get dressed after you brush your teeth and wash yourself up , you have to wear your new black leather shoes before you can have the chocolate pie.

Ok mommy,  i will be there in a few minutes,

now that’s my cute little one..

Mommy can i have a kite,

A kite? Why honey? i thought you dint like them.

no mommy, i like kites, i want a red colored kite..

Ok honey i will get one today, you and daddy can play with it when you come home for lunch in the afternoon.

Ok mommy,

and honey daddy will pick you up from school this evening, mommy has to go the mall is that Ok.

yeah I guess its Ok mommy,

oh my sweet little nice pie, now go get yourself ready, hmm ah Honey what colored kite did you say?

Red colored kite, mommy...

- I dedicate it to Haruki Murakami even though I don't exist.

............Well the"I" here is the narrator of this story not me.....................






























Prasanna Kumar