GDP gets low, fuel prices go high !!!

 The fourth quarter GDP figure has taken a hit, at 5.3 % it is the lowest in 7 years including the period (2008-2010) in which the world economy seemed to have slumped into a lull which raised the concerns of the likelihood of it turning into an economic depression like the one in 1929 which brought down the business activity and financial services around the world to its knees, major central banks around the world went on a rate cut spree and the major world economies got themselves into the quantitative easing measure mode to arrest the slump, still the business activity around the world seemed far less from enthusiastic, corporations were shedding excesses to stay viable leaving no doubts that there has been a steady downside pressure on the consumption since 2007, credits were not forth coming, banks ceased to transact, the call money market was going berserk each day, but even then the Indian economy performed well not very much owing to the huge public spending the state got itself involved in, back then the Indian economy showed actual resilience owing to some very impressive performance of different sectors which kept the mood and the business activity upbeat even when the crude oil prices in the international oil market were reaching for the sky, though for some time the state took some of the hit in the form of not subjecting to the pressures to raise the oil prices in accordance to the international oil market prices, it dint last long until the government in June 2010 decided to decontrol the fuel prices and paired it to the fluctuations that crude oil prices go through in the international oil market.

                                     The GDP figures for the the first 3 quarters of 2010 was a whopping 9.2 % even after the government decided to decontrol the fuel prices, but since the second quarter of 2011 there has been a steady decline in the quarter GDP figures leading to the present level of 5.3%, the average price of a liter of petrol before the government decided to decontrol was Rs 47.93 but now it costs Rs 77.23 and the Gross Domestic output is on the verge of reaching the levels of all time low. Why don't the fuel prices reflect the actual fall in the consumption and the actual fall in the commercial business activity in the economy?, and why is the fuel prices reaching for the skies even when the price of the crude oil has eased a bit from the levels its was in 2009 ?. The Oil marketing companies have posted a nominal profit for the fiscal 2011-12, for the period 2012 January - march quarter alone, Indian Oil Corporation reported a profit of Rs 12,670 crore and Bharat Petroleum corporation limited a profit of Rs 3,962 crore, though the oil marketing companies are underplaying it by calling these profits as long over due with their receivables touching nearly Rs 1,50,000 crore it only makes wonder about the functioning of a free market economy in which the state is also a major player.

                                        Oil being an essential resource the oil marketing companies could very well ignore the pressures of the market to make "huge" profits to offset some hypothetical future turbulence that a hypothetical free market economy always throws up, the indian oil Corp and other state owned oil marketing companies have to define the essentiality behind their need to make "huge" profits, and Oil being a commodity so precious and so essential a resource should not be allowed to aide the indulgence a free market economy always provides for when it comes to making boundless profits, which might be beneficial for quite a few investors but one has to take a holistic approach and look at the bigger picture when a commodity so essential as oil is invovled in the functioning of the economy. Having said that these state run oil marketing companies should have turned into energy solutions centers long time ago providing answers to our countries ever increasing energy demands and needs by investing themselves and their resources in search of cheap and alternate sources of renewable energy. As of now our countries energy policy is so screwed up that the oil price factor seems likely to loose its sensitive nature on the kind of influence it wields on the broader political economy and whom do we have to blame for all this ?, I would blame it on all the rotten minds who have run and are now behind the scene people in the oil Ministry.

Rupee goes Low Fuel Prices go high !!!!

                                Yesterday my friend said something like this about the falling rupee " 56 Rupees a Dollar its bad already, what difference could it now make if its 60 Rupees a Dollar or 56 Rupees a Dollar, screw the finance minister", I guess he might be right but the numbers they trigger sentiments, a Dollar costing 56 Rupees is still better than a Dollar costing 60 rupees or for that matter a Dollar costing 62 Rupees could well be better than 60 Rupees a Dollar, "business sometimes could well be all about sentiments but not entirely", i will explain that latter. This fuel price hike was not triggered by a sudden rise in the crude oil prices but by the weakening of rupee and to make mends to our current account deficit, and why the rupee has been weakening ?, The answer to this question is confusing and interesting at the same time. Some finger's point towards the falling GDP, well some point towards the currency futures market and some to the European debt crisis, and some point it to the falling institutional investments.

                                      If you take the last one and half year or so there have been considerable fall in the index of industrial production (IIP), which shows how the manufacturing sector has been performing which is the key to the capitalistic economic setup, IIP figures also give a rough picture of whether the consumer market is upbeat or not, and lately the IIP figures have not been so good, this definitely seems to be the effect of the high lending rates of the previous months which was meant to offset the effects of very high inflation which led to an unprecedented increase in the food prices and essential goods, Inflation has been contained to a certain limit, Food prices have come down but what do we have now "a weak rupee" and why?, the Dollar is strengthening ! for the euro is in the doll drums, that's a lame story i am not ready to buy yet, the currency of a country which has been grappling to manage its debt equation for nearly a decade gaining strength, the currency of a country which is still in the pool and has no clue what so ever about how to get its spending checked, gaining strength, the currency of a country which has one of the lowest savings rate gaining strength in the real sense, is something just so hard to buy, but well that's the story some are trying to sell.

                                        I have quoted above that business is all about sentiments, but well not exactly, in fact business is all about speculations one commits to on the profits that is to be made, and speculations are for the most part driven by sentiments and hence the idea that "business is all about sentiments" that apart, the present sentiments towards the macro economic conditions or towards the profits that is to be made is not quite jubilant. what started off as something which had its reasons within the boundaries of micro economic condition's has gone out of the boundary to have its reasons from macro economic conditions and that's where i believe the reasons for the weakening of rupee lies, it could well be one of governments move to make our manufacturing competitive what with all the dismal IIP figures, on the lighter side i fancy that this might be one of RBI's move to bring back at least some of the ill gotten money which went out of the country, because of all these hoopla about Government doing nothing about the issue of Black money stashed abroad, well its an undenaiable fact that there will always be people who are always greedy and would always prefer to have more rupees and this could be the right time for them. A surge in the number of NRI Bank accounts in the country that would be so so on the expected lines.

Colors of life all around
bustling in the vividness
of its possibilities,
though fades through
to meet its end,
it seems so endless and abound
in the realms of our sensibilities,
I wonder if thats what celestials
intended it to be,
for it to be limited,
to be incomplete,
but it doesn't matter
I intend to complete
which the heavens have left incomplete,
the hues of life
needs to become eternal
and will,
through the lens i see.

- A Photographer, Me :)

A Short Story

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Lately I have been reading more of Haruki Murakamis works and its been amazing for many reasons, I think there are many aspects to the way one sees the world, most of the time we are not even aware of those aspects which makes us to see the world the way we see it and Murakami just makes you aware of those aspects.

A RED KITE, BLUE PAIR OF SHOES, VIOLIN MUSIC

It doesn't matter; it just doesn't matter because I don’t exist anymore. I don't exist even when I have a story that I have to say to you the reader, I just don't exist, I just have fleeting memories of the images of my existence, a red kite, a pair of blue shoes, violin music. It sounds strange isn't it for you the reader to hear about something from some one who doesn't exist, it sounds strange even to myself but strange as it may sound it is real, and it is real as strange. Some times when strange happens people try their best to make it look normal when they cant they ignore it. Well here in this case you the reader don't have any other choice but to listen to me, I will try to make it look as normal as I can so you don’t feel strange and uncomfortable, so before I continue let me make myself clear once again to you the reader, I don’t exist.

A tiny little hand is holding on to the string of a red kite flying high up in the air against the clear blue sky, its sunny but nice thought the "little one", the red kite has a very long tail and it sways, it sways as if it is really happy to be up in the clear blue sky. The tiny little asks, daddy why does the kites tail sway, its because of the wind honey, said the daddy. But the tiny little knew daddy was wrong because the kite never swayed his tail when he hanged on the wall in her tiny little room, and the tiny little remembers daddy once saying that "wind is all around us honey, its everywhere". The tiny little knew daddy was just wrong, the red kite was just happy to be up in the clear blue sky and that’s why he swayed his tail. It was nice to see the red kite happy up in the clear blue sky swaying his tail.

A small pair of black leather shoes stomp on the green grass heading towards they dint know where. The small black leather shoes were getting wet and darker as they waded through the twinkling dewy blades of green grass, after some stomping and hoping they were in front of a Small pair of blue shoes. The pair of blue shoes looked sad, the pair of black leather shoes dint know why the blue shoes were sad, the black leather shoes thought the blue shoes were sad may be because they were wornout or they were getting wet or may be because they were in front of the new black leather shoes or just because their color was blue, they just dint know why the blue shoes were sad, then the black leather shoes and the blue shoes started to walk together heading towards they dint know where. They stopped in front of a small puddle, the blue shoes jumped right into the browny water, the browny water splashed on the black shoes making them look half brown, the blue shoes hopped back again to the green grass and back again into the puddle, the black shoes could see the pair of blue shoes dint look sad anymore they were happy to get wet, they were happy to get dirty, they were happy to turn into another color, the blue pair of shoes weren't blue anymore. The black shoes hesitated a bit but they also jumped into the puddle and let their color change, and the black leather shoes and the blue shoes they were happy together in the puddle. The blue shoes weren’t blue anymore, the black shoes weren’t black anymore but they were happy.

It was raining outside the car, sitting in the back of the car the little one was looking outside through the window listening to the violin music daddy had put on the player, the rain drops came down heavily against the window and it sounded like violin music, the rain drops seemed happy to sound like violin music thought the little one, the car window also seemed too happy thought the little one may because it also liked the rain sounding like violin music, as the violin music was melting the rain drops into what the car window seemed to be enjoying the little one's eyes were glued upon it, just then the little one heard the thunder and the sound of tyres screeching, the sound of the rain sounded like rain again, the little one heard the not happy sound of the shattering glasses and the not happy loud noise of metal's clanking and screeching as the car rolled over, the little one dint know what had just happened as she was up side down looking at her daddys face covered in blood, the little one heard the rain sounding like rain again, the rain sounded like it was happy to sound like rain again thought the little one, and then the rain stopped sounding like rain as it became dark all over again ...

get up honey, its 7:30 in the morning. You will be late to school. There was no sound, just the hush... no sound, it was all dark the rain sound had stopped.

Honey get up you are 6 years old now, you cannot have mommy waking you up every morning, dint mommy tell you to use the alarm clock last night. The sound of rain had stopped, the sound of rain had stopped, hush. I don’t exist.

Open your eyes honey. Today you have to brush your teeth yourself; mommy is not going to help you.

Mommy can i sleep a little bit more,

no honey, not if you want to have your favorite chocolate pie mommy has made for your break fast.

Chocolate pie!! That sounds nice mommy! i will be there in a minute.

Honey, you have to get dressed after you brush your teeth and wash yourself up , you have to wear your new black leather shoes before you can have the chocolate pie.

Ok mommy,  i will be there in a few minutes,

now that’s my cute little one..

Mommy can i have a kite,

A kite? Why honey? i thought you dint like them.

no mommy, i like kites, i want a red colored kite..

Ok honey i will get one today, you and daddy can play with it when you come home for lunch in the afternoon.

Ok mommy,

and honey daddy will pick you up from school this evening, mommy has to go the mall is that Ok.

yeah I guess its Ok mommy,

oh my sweet little nice pie, now go get yourself ready, hmm ah Honey what colored kite did you say?

Red colored kite, mommy...

- I dedicate it to Haruki Murakami even though I don't exist.

............Well the"I" here is the narrator of this story not me.....................






























Prasanna Kumar 

Aug 28th 2011

What a Day it has been, Aug 28th 2011 a day that will be etched in the history forever for what it has turned out to be, a day that signifies the victory to the masses beyond any question, a day when the idea of Gandhi came alive again, a day that we can really feel proud of for it did happen in front of our eyes.
There have been many things that have been taught to us in our schools about this country to which we all belong, and things about which we should feel proud about. We the millennials belong to that part of the time where we have been asked to feel proud about things and People we haven't seen, like the "independence movement", like " Mahatma Gandhi" & "Bhagat singh".

Things that happened in the last few days may not be the exact delineation of 1947 freedom struggle but it carried the exact spirit which gave way for a Gandhi to emerge, which brought out a Bhagat singh. You should really feel proud that such a huge Non Violent protest in the history of mankind has happened in this very land you were born which hold's the virtue "Ahimsa" very high.
The millions who congregated in many cities and towns around the country in this fight against corruption are the people who Really make this country called "India". You can now really say "I am Proud to be an Indian I belong to the land of Anna Hazare".



































Prasanna Kumar 

Eternal existence of ethereal substances

Eternal existence of

ethereal substances,

maketh the world,

maketh the universe,

maketh the endless time,

Loud are the cries

and its endless with

flesh and blood

strewn all around,

with perspectives of men

narrowed down by creed

to be mean,

loud are the cries

and its endless with

bearded men in turbans

and with guns,

with goggled men in boots

and with tanks,

Loud are the cries

and its endless

with homeless hungry men

wasted enough to sleep

to die,

with immaculate men

in suits spoiled enough

to waste things

to live,

loud are the cries

and its endless with

men who gun

the pigeons to

win the war

and lose their souls,

yet

loud are the cries

and its endless

for men who had

their souls intact

in harmony with peace

for us to see

and for the future

to perceive,

Loud are the cries

and its endless

for men who continue

to live in the hearts of

the people, even

in the deceased

as peace.

Eternal existence of

ethereal substances,

maketh the world,

maketh the universe,

maketh the endless time

Dance of Democracy In a Free Market Economy

Noted journalist T.R Jawahar has been very much right in pointing out the fact that post MGR none of the Dravidian parties have managed a 2nd term, establishing the incumbency jinx. But I think this particular poll is very interesting, not that the earlier ones have been damp, they have been interesting none the less. But this 2011 Tamil Nadu assembly election is interesting for various other reasons, which i believe will usher in a new era in which political parties have to indulge in politics in a whole different way, with the reality of 70 crore people of this country interacting with each other with the click of a button on their mobile phones things have to change and not just in its own pace but Quick. Daily i get at least 10 messages from my friends, mostly sarcastic about the way the parties in this election have taken this whole freebies thing seriously, Giving an impression to the voters that the parties think the voters have become so cheap that they could be bribed openly.

one message that i received " Karunanidhi to the people of Tamil Nadu before world cup Cricket match : People dont have to worry if India loses the world cup, we will "Freely" distribute the world cup to each house in Tamil Nadu.

DMK was riding high with the kept up promises of freebies to it's voters, and his highness Karunanidhis master stroke "Free television sets for all" had actually cemented the possibility of a 2nd term, this certainty of a 2nd term led His highness to proclaim that he wanted to step down to let his son take his place, and then 2G spectrum scam came into the picture and every thing changed. A Raja got arrested, Sadique batcha died. This particular scam is something of a different genre as far as our Indian polity is concerned, it has showed that shrewed old timers like karunanidhi have lost to the changes brought about by free market economy.

Since 1991 the pace at which changes have happened seems to have out paced the political minds that were so used to the predictability and the routine of the Nehruvian socialistic era, where every time the poll issue was always about the lack of development and suffering of the ordinary citizen(Aam aadmi), not that things have changed now, but the political parties now have the option of luring the voters by making promises to full fill the ordinary citizens house hold needs, thanks to the free market economy. The competition in the manufacturing sector has brought down the prices of the electronics and the electrical equipments, it has now become possible for the government to give the household appliances for "free" to its "voters" , its altogether another topic for discussion that "nothing comes for free in a free market economy".

I think the congress and the DMK have misjudged the present minds thriving in free market economy by conniving to make money out of the 2G spectrum allocation to private players, thinking that they-CONG-DMK could always fall back on the Nehruvian socialistic principles to justify that their first cum first serve policy was only to avert the huge cost the consumers might have had to bear. Their initial argument that a bidding process would have only led to the unreasonable pricing of the Spectrum, which the operators would have transfered it to the consumers dint hold any water. People have seen too much of competition in too many sectors to fall for such a dumb story, courtesy the opening up of the economy in 1991. What people now are seeing around is a far cry from the society which was inclined towards socialistic ideologies and reasoning.

If DMK loses this election it surely will be its own doing thanks to 2G scam and many other issues handled improperly, As for the ordinary Thamizhan he will have many different things to point at for his decision for a change, I am sure even if he doesn't recognize it free market is one of them.